Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Monday, November 10

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, November 6	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, November 7	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, November 10	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030948 SPC AC 030948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Great Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture return is forecast to be limited. In spite of this, weak instability is expected to develop ahead of the trough as it progresses eastward across the central U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon and evening, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. Any severe threat on these two days should remain isolated due to the lack of instability.

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture return is expected to take place across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorm development is currently forecast along the northern edge of a moist airmass, in the Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. A potential will exist for scattered severe storms. However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the magnitude of any severe threat, and where the greatest threat will be. Some solutions suggest that most of the storms will be located to the north of the strongest instability, which would be problematic for a greater severe threat. At this time, will continue "predictability too low" for Saturday.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, the large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances into the Atlantic Coastal States. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front during the afternoon from Georgia northward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An isolated severe threat will be possible, although uncertainty is substantial at this range. The front is forecast to move off the Atlantic Coast on Monday, reducing the potential for thunderstorms across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, November 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.