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Outlook for Tuesday, November 11

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, November 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, November 8	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, November 10	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, November 11	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040908 SPC AC 040908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Friday

An area-of-interest, sufficient for a Predictability Too Low highlight, appears centered on the OH Valley to Deep South. A large-scale mid/upper trough should consist of several embedded shortwave impulses progressing east from Hudson Bay through the central to eastern CONUS. Primary surface cyclone is expected to shift from the Upper Great Lakes into QC, with a trailing cold front to its southwest undergoing frontolysis in the TN Valley/Deep South by Friday night. Modified moisture return from the southern Gulf may support moderate buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley, with a plume of weak buoyancy extending into the OH/TN Valleys ahead of the front. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized severe potential. Latest GEFS-based SPC/NSSL ML probs have trended upward with severe indications, more aggressive than yesterday's available NCAR ECENS-based guidance. Overall setup may tend to favor a more mesoscale-driven 15% area given uncertainty on timing of convective development along the southwest extent of the weakening front and the degree of destabilization where ascent is stronger to the northeast.

D6/Sunday

Substantial amplification of the next mid/upper trough is largely progged across the central to eastern states late Saturday through Sunday. This should induce more southerly cyclogenesis across the North-Central States into the Lower Great Lakes. With the D4 wave aiding in low-level moisture return from the southern Gulf, latest guidance indicates seasonably rich dew points may be more prevalent across the eastern Gulf and South Atlantic Coasts by late weekend. This signal distinctly lacks run-to-run continuity, but should foster at least low-probability severe potential across the Southeast Coastal Plain.

..Grams.. 11/04/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, November 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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