Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, November 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, November 10	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, November 11	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, November 12	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, November 13	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, November 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070902 SPC AC 070902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

With a continental airmass intrusion across the entirety of the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts by D4/Monday, severe and even thunder potential should be negligible through mid-week. Modified return flow will occur across the western Gulf and spread into the South-Central States during mid to late week. But this will occur downstream of an amplified upper ridge over the West, curtailing severe potential through D8/Friday.

..Grams.. 11/07/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, November 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, November 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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