Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 15

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, November 11	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, November 12	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, November 13	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, November 14	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 15	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080835 SPC AC 080835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will be negligible through much of the period in the wake of a continental airmass overspreading the Gulf on D3/Monday. Modified return flow should slowly build across the western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass approaching the northwest Gulf next weekend. Guidance still lacks run-to-run continuity and timing spread is large, but consensus indications are for an upper-level trough to progress into the Southwest around next weekend. This could yield a return to severe potential in the South-Central States after D8/Saturday.

..Grams.. 11/08/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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