Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Tuesday, November 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, November 14	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, November 15	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, November 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110919 SPC AC 110919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Bulk of guidance has largely trended towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with a cutoff closed low near southern CA on D5/Saturday. The EC-AIFS has been trending slower and more dampened with the downstream evolution across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains into early next week. Most other deterministic guidance remains faster and farther south with the evolution of this wave and progress it into the South-Central States.

A maritime tropical airmass should reach the TX Gulf Coast by late weekend. This should yield a resumption of severe potential into the South-Central States after being negligible in preceding days. Still, the quartet of latest GEFS-SPC/NSSL and yesterday's ECENS-AI NCAR probabilistic guidance are each holding at less than 15 percent. If the rest of guidance further follows recent EC-AIFS trends, severe probabilities may remain marginal and/or mesoscale-focused on D6-7/Sunday-Monday.

Given signals for another large-scale trough into the Southwest towards D8/Tuesday and lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, another round of severe potential may develop around mid-week next week.

..Grams.. 11/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, November 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.