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Outlook for Wednesday, November 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, November 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 16	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, November 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, November 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120857 SPC AC 120857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley on D4/Saturday

Amplification of a negative-tilt mid-level trough appears probable from the Canadian Prairies towards the Northeast. Within the left-exit region of a strengthening mid-level jet, convection should increase towards late afternoon and especially into the evening along a sharpening cold front that accelerates southeastward. With only modified boundary-layer moisture return ahead of the front, MLCAPE should be quite limited and spatially confined. But a supercell wind profile combined with pronounced large-scale ascent should be adequate for at least low severe probabilities.

South-Central States on D6-8/Monday-Wednesday

Latest guidance continues to converge towards the more consistent EC-AIFS with the evolution of the closed low off the southern CA coast at 12Z Saturday. Similar to yesterday's EC-AIFS, this should become an open but compact wave as it ejects across the southern Rockies to the central Great Plains by Monday. The southern influence of the wave may overspread the northern periphery of western Gulf moisture, rendering at least low severe probabilities.

This wave may largely dampen into Tuesday with the more consistent EC-AIFS indicating a mid-level ridge building from the Gulf into the Mid-MS Valley, in advance of a large-scale trough in the West. The EC-AIFS hints at another potential cutoff/closed low situation, albeit farther east than the prior wave. With the GFS also supporting this scenario, severe potential in this pattern might remain marginal and confined to TX. This is in contrast to other guidance suggesting a more progressive wave interacting with the western Gulf moisture plume.

..Grams.. 11/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, November 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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