Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, December 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, December 1	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, December 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, December 3	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, December 4	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, December 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, November 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, December 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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