Severe Weather Outlook

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* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Saturday, December 6

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, December 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, December 3	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, December 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, December 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, December 6	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290930 SPC AC 290930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day 4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday) time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, December 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, December 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, December 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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