Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, December 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, December 3	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, December 4	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, December 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, December 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, December 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300932 SPC AC 300932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8 (Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame. However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for now.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, December 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, December 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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