Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, December 11

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, December 7	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, December 8	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, December 9	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, December 10	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, December 11	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS within a broader west-northwesterly to east-southeasterly upper flow regime next week. The orientation of the upper flow will support multiple southeastward surges of cooler, statically stable air, and prevent appreciable moisture return from the Gulf to the CONUS. An overall quiescent severe weather pattern is predicted for the Days 4-8 period, though a few occasional rounds of isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, where at least scant moisture-driven buoyancy may reside.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, December 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 6: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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