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Outlook for Saturday, January 10

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 6	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 7	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, January 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 10	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030931 SPC AC 030931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday. Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday. This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.

For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on D7/Friday.

..Grams.. 01/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, January 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, January 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, January 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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