Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, January 11	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, January 12	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, January 15	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080916 SPC AC 080916

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe potential currently appears low through the extended-range period.

A cold front will move through coastal NC and parts of FL on D4/Sunday, in advance of a deep upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS, but ascent and buoyancy within the remaining warm sector appear too weak to support organized storms. For D5/Monday through D8/Thursday, generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of multiple frontal intrusions will tend to limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z ECMWF) indicates that thunderstorm chances may return to parts of the FL Peninsula by mid week, in association with renewed upper trough amplification across the eastern CONUS. However, with guidance generally depicting only weak surface wave development during this time frame, confidence in organized storm development remains low.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 8: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, January 9: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, January 10: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, January 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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