Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, January 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 21	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 22	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 23	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170855 SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, January 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, January 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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