Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, August 31	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250827 SPC AC 250827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is possible across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest starting Day 4/Friday and continuing through the weekend. The specific evolution remains unclear with quite a range of ensemble solutions at this time. Nonetheless, expect severe weather somewhere within this broad region each day.

Day4/Friday

As the upper-level ridge flattens on Friday, lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the western Dakotas ahead of this lee trough. Any weak mid-level shortwave trough to provide a focus for this threat remains nebulous. Therefore, the location of any surface features remains unclear and thus, it is difficult to highlight a more specific region with a greater severe weather probability at this time.

Day5/Saturday

Severe weather may be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest on Saturday, but this threat will be somewhat dependent on the location and intensity of Day 4 convection.

Day6/Sunday

The ECMWF and AI-ECMWF remain relatively consistent showing a trough traversing the northwest on Saturday and emerging across the northern Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, the GFS and AI-GFS have trended more progressive, and the individual GEFS members show substantial spread in the upper-level pattern for Sunday/Day6. The relative consistency in timing and location of the upper-level trough from the ECMWF build confidence for this solution. However, even the ECMWF and AI-ECMWF trended slightly less amplified with this trough. Therefore, the combination of large spread in the upper pattern from GEFS members and a slightly deamplified trend from the ECMWF provide enough uncertainty to avoid adding probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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