Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, October 4

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

tornado severe weather outlook for Sunday, October 4

wind low

wind severe weather outlook for Sunday, October 4

hail low

hail severe weather outlook for Sunday, October 4

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 050137

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. tonight.

Synopsis

A baroclinic zone across the Southeast U.S. continues to sag southward as a broader upper trough tracks eastward from the Great Lakes. Given the lack of stronger upper air support and the onset of nocturnal cooling/decreased buoyancy, the coverage of lightning flashes across the Southeast should continue to decrease overnight. Similarly, a plume of marginal buoyancy over CO into NM, which has supported some lightning flashes thus far, should also wane through the evening.

..Squitieri.. 10/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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