Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, October 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, October 4

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, October 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, October 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, October 3	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, October 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270914 SPC AC 270914

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0414 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

During the mid-week, an upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will advect northward into the southern and central Plains. A pocket of moderate instability may develop over the southern High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As surface heating is maximized Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the instability axis. A mid-level jet, associated with the approaching system, is forecast to move into the southern High Plains in the afternoon. This feature will increase deep-layer shear. The timing of the mid-level jet is still in question, but if the mid-level jet can move into the southern Plains soon enough, then a severe threat could develop. Under this scenario, isolated supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

From Thursday into Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. Ahead of the slow-moving system, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place both Thursday and Friday over parts of east-central Texas. On these two days, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, mainly with storms that form near the instability axis.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, a moist and somewhat unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the Southeast, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day. Of the two days, the strongest instability is forecast to be on Sunday, when an isolated severe threat will be possible. Uncertainty regarding the spatial extent and magnitude is substantial at this range.

..Broyles.. 09/27/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Monday, September 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 29: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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