Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, October 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, October 5

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, October 2	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 3	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, October 4	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, October 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280856 SPC AC 280856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5

On Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place Thursday afternoon from central Texas north-northeastward into southwest Missouri. Thunderstorm development is expected along and near parts of the instability axis during the afternoon and evening. The area with the greatest potential for severe storms appears to be across central Texas, where current model forecast have moderate instability and moderate deep-layer juxtaposed. However, the favored corridor is forecast to be narrow, and there is some uncertainty concerning the placement of the instability axis. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with storms that form near the instability axis Thursday afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the trough on Friday, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Ark-La-Tex. Along this corridor, an isolated severe threat will be possible with storms that develop near localized maximums of instability. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat will remain marginal.

Saturday/Day 6 and Monday/Day 8

From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward from the Mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys to near the Gulf Coast. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day ahead of the front, with the greatest convective coverage in the Southeast. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the moist sector, which should minimize the potential for severe storms.

..Broyles.. 09/28/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, September 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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