Severe Weather Outlook

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• Friday, October 9 →

Outlook Summary

Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090058

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA

### SUMMARY

Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight.

Florida Peninsula

Water vapor imagery currently shows a plume of mid-level moisture associated with Hurricane Isaias from the central Gulf of America northeastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated with Isaias will move inland across the Florida Peninsula this evening into tonight. Over the southern half of Florida, the RAP shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The most favorable zone for rotating storms will be along the northern edge of the stronger instability near and to the southeast of Tampa Bay. RAP forecast soundings in the area have veering winds with height in the lowest 3 km with enough low-level shear for an isolated tornado threat.

Iowa

At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow is located over the central and northern U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through South Dakota. Lift will be maximized in the mid Missouri Valley ahead of this feature, along the far eastern edge of a central Plains low-level speed max. As low-level flow increases this evening, elevated storms will continue to develop over western and central Iowa. RAP forecast soundings in west-central Iowa show a sharp temperature inversion at low-levels, with steep lapse rates above 900 mb. The resulting MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with about 50 knots of effective shear should be enough for an isolated hail threat.

..Broyles.. 10/09/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 8

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: low

Friday, October 9

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Saturday, October 10

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, October 11

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook