Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, October 8

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, October 4	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, October 5	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, October 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, October 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Early next week, a large-scale upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, as mid-level flow become west-northwesterly over much of the nation. At the surface, a large surface high will be dominant on Sunday and Monday from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.

Further west into the Great Plains, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward through the Dakotas on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is expected over the Great Plains. By Tuesday afternoon, an axis of instability should be in place from western Kansas into north-central Nebraska. Along and near the instability axis, an isolated severe threat will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. On Wednesday, the axis of instability is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible near and ahead of the front from late afternoon into the evening.

By Thursday, model forecasts move an upper-level trough into the Great Lakes, as a subtle shortwave ridge moves through the central U.S. A relatively dry and cool airmass over much of the U.S. is expected to make thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas.

..Broyles.. 10/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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