Severe Weather Outlook

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• Sunday, October 11 →

Outlook Summary

A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101628

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into the Carolinas.

FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas

Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized. Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty is high regarding this potential scenario.

Southeast ID

Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to 500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms.

Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ

Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/10/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 15%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook