Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, October 10

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, October 10

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, October 6	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, October 7	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, October 8	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, October 9	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, October 10	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030740 SPC AC 030740

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential is forecast to be low across the CONUS through the period.

Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist from the northern Rockies & Plains eastward into the northeastern states. Periodic embedded waves and associated frontal intrusions will maintain a relatively stable air mass across the same areas, while the more substantial low-level moisture and instability remain largely over the Gulf of America and western Atlantic Ocean.

Some low-end thunderstorm potential will be possible late Thur/D6 into Fri/D7 over the Upper Midwest, with primarily late day/evening elevated thunderstorms possible as the large-scale trough over eastern Canada starts to lift, and low-level warm advection occurs over the northern Plains.

..Jewell.. 10/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, October 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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