Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, October 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, October 11

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, October 7	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, October 8	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, October 9	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, October 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, October 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.

For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming outlooks as the situation evolves.

..Jewell.. 10/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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