Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Tuesday, October 13

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 9	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 10	15%
Day 6	Sunday, October 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, October 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, October 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060812 SPC AC 060812

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone may develop toward the central Gulf of America.

Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4 night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge air mass.

At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however, predictability is quite low at this time.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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