Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, October 14

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 10	15%
Day 5	Sunday, October 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, October 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, October 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, October 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070826 SPC AC 070826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent outlooks if the center track shifts.

For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.

For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough and date of wave ejection is low predictability.

..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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