Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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