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Outlook for Thursday, May 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231950

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS…OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE…AND EASTERN MAINE

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight.

NE into IA

Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models.

Western OK and TX

A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912.

..Jewell.. 05/23/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/

Northern Plains

Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA.

Southern Plains

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it.

Maine

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details.

TN Valley

Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 23
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Friday, May 24
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 25
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, May 26
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, May 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, May 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, May 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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