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Outlook for Monday, January 13

Outlook Summary

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

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tornado low

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121701

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

Discussion

Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians.

Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening.

..Kerr.. 01/12/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, January 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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