Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Saturday, April 19

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 181745

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley.

Synopsis

An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast.

At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment.

The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential.

TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley

Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time.

To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear.

Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, April 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, April 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.