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Outlook for Saturday, June 14

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121927

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Saturday over parts of the central Plains. Isolated to widely scattered storms may occur from southern Montana into the southern High Plains.

Central/Northern Plains

The highest storm coverage in this area appears to be within eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and Nebraska given a shortwave perturbation moving through during the afternoon. With around 30-40 kts of effective shear and strong surface heating, scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. A low-level jet will develop during the evening and focus in Nebraska/South Dakota. Some activity may be able to last into the evening.

Some guidance develops elevated storms farther east in South Dakota as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated buoyancy will be large and shear will be sufficient for some storm organization. Though development is conditional, low severe probabilities have been extended into this area given the hail/isolated wind damage threat.

Central/Southeast Montana

With the upper-level trough generally remaining in the Northwest, the strongest mid-level winds should remain over parts of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Lingering, sufficient low-level moisture should allow for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop within the higher terrain and spread into central/southeast Montana. Hail and severe gusts are the likely hazards with this activity.

Southern Plains

There remains some potential for activity from overnight Friday activity to persist into Saturday morning. Guidance varies in the location of where storms may intensify as the surface heats, but the general theme is that a continuation of overnight activity or perhaps development along an outflow boundary is possible. Shear will not be overly strong, particularly with eastward extent, but large MLCAPE in a moist, uncapped environment could support a corridor of damaging wind potential. Low severe probabilities have been extended east to account for this possibility, though uncertainty is still high.

Mid-South into Mid-Atlantic

Another day of scattered convection is possible in these regions as a low-amplitude, diffuse upper-level trough shifts eastward. Poor lapse rates and weak shear should limit the overall severe threat. Isolated damaging winds are possible, but, again, highlighting an area of greater organization is quite uncertain at this time.

..Wendt.. 06/12/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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