Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 18	15%
Day 5	Sunday, April 19	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, April 20	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150753 SPC AC 150753

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sat - Ohio Valley

An upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes and Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep east across the region during the day. Destabilization will likely be limited by downstream cloud cover within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the front. Additionally, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from Lower MI into IN/IL. Nevertheless, strong mid/upper flow (40-60 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will support strong to severe convection even amid weak instability. As such, a damaging wind gust risk will accompany linear convection moving across the region during the day into evening.

Days 5-6/Sun-Mon

Strong high pressure in the wake of the cold front from the Day 4 period will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies early next week. A dry/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An upper trough is forecast to develop across the western U.S. Tuesday/Wednesday. This will result in lee trough development across the High Plains, and strengthening south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains. Medium range guidance varies on whether or not this western trough will eject into the Plains during this time, or if upper ridging will be maintained. If the trough ejects, severe potential could develop across portions of the southern/central Plains Tuesday/Wednesday, though predictability is too low at this time to introduce severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 15: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, April 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, April 17: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Saturday, April 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, April 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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