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Outlook for Sunday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 10	15%
Day 6	Friday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060829 SPC AC 060829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts.

A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario.

As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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