Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, November 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, November 3	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, November 4	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, November 5	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, November 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, November 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310840 SPC AC 310840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the early to mid-week. Through this time, surface high pressure will remain dominant from the Great Plains eastward into the eastern U.S. Further west, a mid-level trough is forecast to move into California on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of California as the system moves inland.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

The West Coast mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Rockies on Thursday. Ahead of the system, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Ahead of the mid-level trough, a severe threat may again develop over the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. The severe threat on Thursday and Friday is expected to remain isolated, mainly due to relatively weak instability.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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