Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, November 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, November 10	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 11	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 12	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 13	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060918 SPC AC 060918

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Focus for severe potential is on D4/Sunday along the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic Coastal Plain. Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough that commences on D3/Saturday will persist through Sunday. Attendant surface cyclone should track from the Lower Great Lakes towards coastal southern New England through Sunday night. Extending southward from this low, a cold front will push east across the Southeast and largely offshore outside of the FL Peninsula. While the bulk of deep-layer flow amplification will be behind the front, strong deep-layer shear should be present along/ahead of it with at least weak buoyancy. Some guidance has trended upward with the degree of convective coverage, while others indicate a fairly dry frontal passage in this region amid low RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels. At this juncture, severe probabilities appear to be at least 5 but less than 15 percent.

With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D5/Monday and a continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential should be minimal early to middle next week.

..Grams.. 11/06/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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