Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, December 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, November 28	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, November 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, December 1	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, December 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250901 SPC AC 250901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and early Saturday.

D5/Sat to D8/Tue

Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability. Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not available at his time due to the large uncertainties.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, November 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, November 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, December 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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