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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 5	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 6	15%
Day 6	Saturday, March 7	15%
Day 7	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020958 SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across the region.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front, the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition, moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible. Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon. However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, March 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, March 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, March 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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