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Outlook for Sunday, March 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071727

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to southeast Virginia.

Carolinas into southeast Virginia

A midlevel trough will move eastward across the Northeast, while a related cold front moves slowly eastward across the Appalachians and eventually to the East Coast late in the period. Ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms are expected within a broad pre-frontal surface trough extending across the Carolinas into southeast VA during the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest, diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) will still contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. This, combined with around 30 kt of effective shear, may promote a couple loosely organized storms during the afternoon and early evening before quickly spreading offshore. The stronger storms will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Weinman.. 03/07/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, March 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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