Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Tuesday, March 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 6	30%
Day 5	Saturday, March 7	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 10	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030952 SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow. Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, March 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 6: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Saturday, March 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, March 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.