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Outlook for Wednesday, March 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, March 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 8	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040956 SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5

On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A 15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8

West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture return is forecast to take place over the southern and central Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, March 5: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, March 6: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Saturday, March 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, March 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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