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Outlook for Friday, March 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, March 11	15%
Day 7	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 13	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061046 SPC AC 061046

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A weak upper shortwave impulse is expected to migrate across the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley on Monday. This will support a narrow corridor of enhanced westerly flow aloft atop a moistening boundary layer. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the ArkLaTex to Lower MS Valley vicinity within the warm advection regime, and a few storms could become strong to locally severe. However, modest forcing and otherwise lack of low-level focus precludes a 15 percent delineation.

Day 5/Tuesday into Day 6/Wednesday

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough over northwest Mexico is forecast to eject eastward toward the southern High Plains on Tuesday. At the same time, a broad upper trough within northern stream flow will develop east from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a large warm/moist sector from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS and Ohio Valleys. A complex surface pattern is expected to emerge, influenced by the split-flow upper troughing pattern. A baroclinic zone extending from OK to the Mid-MS Valley area will be one focus for severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, lee surface troughing across west TX and a developing dryline will be another focus for severe storm development. While details remain uncertain, these surface features, combined with strengthening southwesterly flow overspreading a warm and unstable airmass, will likely foster a broad area of severe thunderstorm potential from the southern Plains into the Midwest.

As the upper troughs from Day 5/Tuesday continue east across the southern Plains and Great Lakes on Day 6/Wednesday, a cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Ohio Valley into east Texas. Spread among forecast guidance increases during this time, leading to more uncertainty. However, most guidance has some overlap of favorable low-level moisture and instability with stronger mid/upper level flow across portions of east TX into the Lower MS Valley. As a result, a 15 percent area has been delineated. This area may need to shift/expand northeast with time depending on trends in model guidance, but currently, it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization will occur further northeast, precluding severe probabilities into the TN/OH Valleys vicinity.

Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday

Predictability is low toward the end of the forecast period as forecast model spread continues to increase. While it is plausible some severe risk could persist into the Southeast on Day 7/Thursday as the upper trough over the Lower MS Valley continues to migrate east, uncertainty is too high to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 6: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, March 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, March 8: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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