Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, April 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, April 21	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, April 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, April 23	15%
Day 7	Friday, April 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, April 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180740 SPC AC 180740

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Initially dry conditions will keep the severe weather threat low on D4/Tuesday. As a mid-level trough traverses the Rockies on Monday, lee troughing will strengthen on D5/Wednesday. This will bring substantial moisture return across the Plains. Given the early stage moisture return, more than an isolated severe weather threat appears unlikely on D5.

A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day 6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern evolves.

The uncertainties discussed for Day 6 become greater on Day 7 and beyond. Persistent troughing across the Plains and considerable instability suggest that severe weather is likely on Friday (and likely into the weekend). However, the progression of the mid-level trough and the associated surface features need to become more clear before a 15% area can be defined for these days.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, April 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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