Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 9

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, June 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, June 9	low / uncertain

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 021033 SPC AC 021033

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00z ensemble mean solutions are in reasonable agreement in the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short-wave trough through the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest, in tandem with a surface front. Those features are expected to support diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development, especially from parts of the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest amidst a moist and moderately unstable air mass. However, there is model spread in the strength of vertical shear across the warm sector, which casts uncertainty on organized severe-weather potential.

### Days 5/Saturday and 6/Sunday

A vigorous short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest and BC coasts Saturday morning is forecast to weak while lifting northeast into the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds attending that system is forecast to overspread the northern Rockies Saturday, and then the adjacent northern High Plains on Sunday. The 00z EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles indicate clustering in lee cyclone development across WY or MT on Saturday, with considerably more spread in surface low positions by Sunday. However, those data do suggest that a front will move into the northern High Plains during the day Sunday.

Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of central and eastern MT Saturday, and perhaps portions of MT into ND on Sunday. Low predictability will be maintained in these areas as it appears that the better forcing for ascent may tend to spread north into Canada. However, these areas will be monitored for a potential upgrade to a 15% unconditional severe-weather probability in subsequent outlooks.

Elsewhere, there is reasonable model agreement in a mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a lower-latitude system lifting north through the southern and central Plains. The presence of a moist and unstable air mass will support strong to isolated severe-storm potential from parts of the southern and central Plains into Great Lakes on Saturday, and southern and central Plains into Ozark Plateau and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday.

### Days 7/Monday and 8/Tuesday

The various ensemble mean solutions indicate some longitudinal variance in an evolving mid-level trough in the vicinity of the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the southern/central Plains trough discussed in the previous section is forecast to weaken while progressing into the upper Midwest. In general, these solutions indicate the strongest mid-level flow confined to the Interior West, and across Canada. The models suggest the most probable overlap of that higher-momentum flow (and associated vertical shear) with a moist and unstable air mass is from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains during this time frame, supporting some severe-storm threat.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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