Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, November 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, November 22

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, November 18	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, November 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, November 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken and shift toward the Southeast as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops over the West. A surface low across the northern Plains will strengthen southerly low-level flow D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday. While initially moisture will be quite limited owing to the prior weekend frontal intrusion, the lead shortwave trough should allow a partially modified Gulf air mass to return across the central Plains ahead of another upper trough emerging from the Southwest by 12z D6/Friday.

Plains to the Midwest

Medium-range model guidance is in fairly good agreement that as the second trough crosses the Rockies, a relatively deep lee cyclone should develop over the central Plains D6/Friday. Southerly low-level flow with a corridor of 50-60 F surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for destabilization and scattered thunderstorms ahead of an associated cold front and lee trough. 60-70 kt mid-level winds overlapping with the aforementioned buoyancy suggests isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. However, model guidance is not clear on the extent and degree of the destabilization. Isolated severe potential may also continue as the upper-level system moves eastward D7/Saturday over the mid MS Valley and Midwest, but confidence remains too low for 15% probabilities at this time.

..Lyons.. 11/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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