Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 7

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, October 7

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 3	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, October 4	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, October 5	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, October 6	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, October 7	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300852 SPC AC 300852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the weekend across the northeastern U.S., as multiple shortwave troughs move through the larger-scale trough. A cold front will advance southward to near the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the day on Saturday and Sunday, but no severe threat is expected.

During the upcoming early to mid week, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. A dry and relatively cool airmass is forecast to be in place over the eastern half of the nation. On the western edge of the high pressure area, low-level moisture advection will be possible across the Great Plains. Thunderstorm development may occur on Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the central Plains, as a cold front approaches. Although instability and deep-layer shear are not forecast to be sufficient for a substantial severe threat, a few marginally severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles.. 09/30/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 30: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, October 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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