Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Friday, October 9

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, October 9

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, October 5	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, October 6	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, October 7	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, October 8	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, October 9	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020817 SPC AC 020817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be minimal.

A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such, no areas are currently forecast.

..Jewell.. 10/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Center after dragging

Off Near edge Always

Map loads as you approach it.

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.