Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, October 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, October 12

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 8	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, October 9	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, October 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, October 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050857 SPC AC 050857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5, as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states preventing moisture return.

For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America. NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.

From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop, though model spread is high.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, October 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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