Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.

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Outlook for Monday, April 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z


Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5

On Monday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the western states and have an upper-level ridge in the east. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast in the southern and central Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located from east Texas north-northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The models suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist sector but uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of moisture and instability. Although a severe threat will be possible, predictability is too low for an outlook area.

On Tuesday, the models move a cold front southward into the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be in the southern Plains where several solutions suggest surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Uncertainty is again substantial concerning the finer-scale details on Tuesday.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

The models diverge somewhat on Wednesday concerning the position of an upper-level trough across the southern tier of the U.S. However, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are in agreement that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across south Texas Wednesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability is forecast with convective potential. For this reason, it appears that a severe threat could develop across parts of south Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, would like to see more run to run consistency before adding a severe threat area.

On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough across the southern U.S. but differ on the speed and timing of the system. The magnitude of instability ahead of the system is also in question. If a moderately unstable airmass develops across the Gulf Coast areas on Thursday and Friday, then a severe threat would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough. At this point, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 04/19/2019


National Risk Overview

Friday, April 19
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 45%
Saturday, April 20
Sunday, April 21
Monday, April 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, April 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, April 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, April 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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