Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, May 29

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 280545

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

OH Valley into the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

A shortwave trough and attendant vorticity maximum are forecast to move from the middle OH Valley northeastward into western portions of the Northeast states on Friday. Another shortwave will move through the Upper Great Lakes, in close proximity to the lead wave. By early Saturday morning, these two shortwaves will have merged into one coherent shortwave extending from southern Quebec southward into the northern Mid-Atlantic.

Dewpoints in the upper 60s (possibly low 70s) are anticipated from the Mid-Atlantic northward into upstate NY, with slightly lower values expected across the middle and upper OH Valley. Given this low-level moisture, the air mass will destabilize under modest heating ahead of the approaching shortwave troughs and associated cold front. Lead shortwave trough is expected to induce convective initiation throughout the warm sector over the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, while the second shortwave trough and attendant cold front aid in convective development over the middle and upper OH Valley.

A predominately multicell mode with numerous line segments is anticipated. Vertical shear is strong enough to support storm organization, resulting in the potential for damaging wind gusts with the more robust line segments. Some isolated hail is also possible, particularly with any more discrete storms. The tornado threat will depend largely on direction of the surface winds and strength of the low-level flow. A more southerly surface-wind direction combined with stronger low-level flow will contribute to greater low-level shear and higher tornado potential. Highest likelihood for these conditions currently exists from central VA northward into upstate NY. However, confidence is occurrence is currently low, since most of the guidance either lacks southerly surface winds or enhanced low-level flow. Consequently, only marginal tornado probabilities will be included with this outlook.

Pacific Northwest

A compact upper cyclone is forecast to move northeasterly toward the central CA coast from Friday evening/overnight into Saturday morning. The progression of this system will result in mid-level moisture advection into the Pacific Northwest, beginning on Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, the combination of this mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing could support moderate instability across portions of OR. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be weak, but convergence and orographic effects on the western edge of a deepening surface low could result in isolated thunderstorms. Recent guidance has trended towards later storm initiation with coverage now expected to be too low to merit any severe probabilities.

..Mosier.. 05/28/2020

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 28
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Friday, May 29
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 30
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, May 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, June 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, June 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 4
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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