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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030842 SPC AC 030842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement that the moderately strong flow will arc anticyclonically from central/northern CA to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes and through the Northeast through the middle of next week. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move within this belt of faster flow aloft during the period, the strongest of which is currently forecast to move into the northern Plains D6/Wednesday. Moderate to strong unstable buoyancy is anticipated across the northern Plains from D4/Monday through D6/Wednesday. Consequently, severe weather is possible each time a shortwave trough interacts with this instability. However, correctly forecasting the strength of any of subtle shortwave troughs as well as the resulting mesoscale boundaries is very difficult at this forecast range. Consequently, no areas will be highlighted with this outlook, though episodic/daily risk areas will likely need to be considered in future outlooks.

..Mosier.. 07/03/2020

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 4
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 5
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Monday, July 6
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 7
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 8
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, July 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, July 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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