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Outlook for Friday, June 18

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any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z


The main feature of interest for the Friday/D4 to Saturday/D5 period will be a shortwave trough that will move from the upper MS Valley toward the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Models differ regarding the evolution of this trough, which decreases predictability. However, at least some severe threat is expected on both days.

On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN, MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as predictability increases.

For Saturday/D5, the severe risk appears to decrease overall as the upper trough either weakens (ECMWF solution), or outruns the better instability which may remain over the lower OH to MO Valleys. While minimal instability may exist ahead of the trough into the Northeast, predictability is low.

From Sunday/D6 to Tuesday/D8, another upper trough is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. This could result in severe wind potential across the mid MO and MS Valleys, but predictability is low with various model solutions currently.

..Jewell.. 06/15/2021


National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 15
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, June 16
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, June 17
Friday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, June 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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