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Outlook for Wednesday, February 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

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National Risk Overview

Friday, January 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, January 28
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 29
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, January 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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