Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 21

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Discussion

While quasi-zonal flow aloft prevails across the central and eastern U.S. today, an eastern-Pacific upper low is forecast to progress eastward, and eventually inland trough the second half of the period. The low will reach a position over the Nevada vicinity by 22/12, while broader cyclonic flow expands to encompass much of the Intermountain West.

As this upper cyclone – and associated surface low/frontal system – move inland, cooling aloft will assist with weak destabilization, and development of showers and embedded thunderstorms across much of California and the Great Basin.

Downstream, weak perturbations will continue moving through the westerly flow field aloft. The westerlies will maintain general lee troughing over the High Plains, supporting a diurnal, southerly low-level jet cycle over the southern/central Plains. As a result, potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms – diminishing somewhat through the day and then increasing again during the evening/overnight – is expected, centered over the eastern Kansas/Missouri vicinity.

Severe weather is not anticipated across either of the two thunder areas.

..Goss/Lyons.. 03/21/2023

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Thursday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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