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Outlook for Saturday, June 15

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130624

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY…AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota.

Mid-MO Valley

A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening.

Northeast MT/North Dakota

An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 13
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Friday, June 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 15
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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