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Outlook for Tuesday, January 14

Outlook Summary

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 121825

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Discussion

Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions.

..Kerr.. 01/12/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, January 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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